With the approval of the small cabinet of Israel, the ceasefire on the Lebanese front seems certain.
Kabul 24: Weapons are supposed to stop firing on Wednesday after fifteen months. The longest and most destructive war between Israel and Hezbollah ended at the cost of the lives of almost all of Hezbollah’s leadership and senior military commanders.
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu’s opponents accuse him of giving up the war without winning and giving in to Hezbollah’s terms.
On the other hand, Netanyahu, acknowledging the fatigue of the army and the deficiencies in its military supplies, says that he has accepted the ceasefire in exchange for freedom of action in Lebanon in case of deficiencies from Hezbollah.
He also said that after achieving great victories in Lebanon, he will focus on the Gaza war and removing the threat from Iran.
On the side of Hezbollah, which has managed to survive an unequal all-out war with great losses and wounds, there are priorities of interests.
It is likely that holding magnificent funeral ceremonies for deceased leaders and commanders is one of their work priorities;
A kind of victory parade aimed at stimulating and rehabilitating the party’s social base and reminding of its importance and place in Lebanon’s internal politics.
For the foreign parties who have tried far and near to establish a ceasefire, its stability is more important than anything else.
They know that disarming Hezbollah is not possible, but removing it to the northern shore of the Litani River is an achievement that can reduce its influence in Lebanese politics and change its political structure to some extent.
The most important thing is the impact of this agreement on the Gaza front and the tension with Iran.
Although Netanyahu has promised not to accept the deal for the release of the hostages until Hamas surrenders, but as in Lebanon, the increase in internal pressure and foreign blame and Trump’s determination to end the endless wars should not be underestimated.
Therefore, the success of the ceasefire in Lebanon can help a similar but different agreement in Gaza.
Probably, by the time Trump takes office, some kind of tension reduction will happen in the southern front.
In this case, what will be Netanyahu’s task without war? Someone who is wanted inside and outside and whose political future is over without war.
Tonight he gave the answer to this question vaguely and succinctly: focusing on the threat of Iran, and of course I cannot give a further explanation!
It goes without saying that he is impatiently waiting for the arrival of Trump and the beginning of a new round of maximum pressure politics.
Iran’s nuclear issue, which has been removed from the JCPOA sheath and placed under the trigger mechanism’s sword of Damocles, will become Netanyahu’s new preoccupation.
Ahnmala Bibi will think of hitting Iran’s allies in Iraq and Yemen, and perhaps with the weapons being silenced in Lebanon, he will feel more free to face Iran directly.
In any case, Israel’s hand in Gaza and Lebanon was somehow under the rock, in the former due to the presence of hostages and the latter due to Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles and drones right under the ear of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
This kind of restraint does not exist in front of Iran and its proxy allies in Iraq and Yemen.
Finally, it should be seen how the process of events in Lebanon will proceed in practice and what measures Trump, who is warming up on the reserve bench, will take.
Saladin Khadio
