Hezbollah’s drone attack on Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea will not change the current war.
But it can have strategic consequences depending on the perception of the Israelis.
Kabul 24: A Hizbollah projectile flew seventy kilometers in Israel and hit a specific location.
After the attack on the headquarters of the Golani army around Haifa, this is the second success in crossing the Iron Dome.
At the same time, it indicates the intelligence elites of Hezbollah on strategic places at least in the northern province of Israel.
Therefore, it cannot be considered as a coincidence and it will certainly occupy the minds of Israeli strategists.
Another important point is hitting the Israeli Prime Minister’s residence.
Although the Prime Minister of Israel was not present at the time of the attack, Hezbollah’s act of targeting the residence of the Israeli leader is not without strategic consequences.
It is very likely that the attackers knew that the residence was empty and they launched the drone knowing that.
This means that they were only looking for a great achievement in the psychological and political battlefield in order to take advantage of its deterrence during the current war.
It is clear that the strategic perception of Israel in this context is more important than the main motivation of Hezbollah.
It is clear that Israel will not consider it as a decisive event, knowing the great disparity between the military power of the parties.
But he may try to retaliate by interpreting it as a kind of reckless crossing of red lines and try to establish a new equation.
In contemporary times, political leaders and heads of state have been targeted in the middle of traditional military campaigns, mostly in the West.
The other side has decided to do it due to its military incapacity and the fear of facing devastating consequences.
In 1986, America bombed Gaddafi’s palace to kill him.
Between 1991 and 2003, he repeatedly attacked places where he thought Saddam Hussein was present.
In the end, both direct and indirect leaders were killed by Western governments.
In an unusual move, Saddam Hussein tried to assassinate Bush Sr. in Kuwait in 1993 during the presidency of Bill Clinton in revenge for the Kuwait war.
It is said that ten years later, one of the motivations of Bush Jr. in attacking Iraq was revenge for his father’s assassination attempt!
In fact, Saddam paid the price by overthrowing his government.
Recently, after reports indicating Iran’s motivation to take revenge for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani from Trump, the United States clearly warned that it considers it as a military act.
It is not clear how Israel will deal with today’s attack?
downplays it and ignores it, or acts on the basis of previously mentioned strategic approaches.
Saladin Khadio
