It seems the Maduro regime is living on borrowed time. The U.S. State Department’s designation of Nicolás Maduro as the leader of the “Cartel de los Soles” narco-terrorist organization is a clear signal that the likelihood of military action against him has sharply increased.
Kabul 24: The United States and most of its allies accuse Maduro of massive fraud in the last election and refuse to recognize his legitimacy as president.
This new designation gives the Trump administration legal cover to launch at least limited military operations against Caracas without requiring Congressional approval.What exactly Trump has in mind remains unclear.
Will it resemble the 1989 invasion of Panama that toppled and captured General Manuel Noriega, involving ground forces? Or will it be restricted to rapid, precise strikes similar to the summer 2024 attack on Iranian targets?
Trump and the MAGA movement’s central promise has always been to avoid endless wars. Yet in practice, Trump specializes in regime change by other means: hybrid warfare that relies on lightning air and cyber strikes, economic strangulation, and internal collapse rather than large-scale ground invasions.Current U.S. military deployments in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific are more than sufficient for a major war if needed.
But the most likely scenario is that Trump prefers to intimidate Maduro and engineer regime collapse from within: encouraging a military coup, widening cracks inside the inner circle, or even targeted elimination; anything that avoids a broad, costly American ground commitment.
Maduro’s hand looks empty. He is trapped in the Western Hemisphere, thousands of miles away from any real allies in Iran, Russia, or China.
Venezuela is bitterly divided into two hostile camps, its economy teeters on total collapse, and hyperinflation continues unchecked.In a desperate move, Maduro has been offering American companies generous oil and gas investment concessions to win Trump’s favor, but Washington has shown no interest and its aggressive policy remains unchanged.
Some observers believe the U.S. ultimate goal is control of Venezuela’s oil reserves; a lever to choke Russia’s economy and break the deadlock in Ukraine. Turning Venezuela into a friendly regime also fits the broader great-power competition with China.
Recall that in the 1980s, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia flooded the market with oil, crashed prices, and broke the Soviet economy, leading directly to the USSR’s collapse.The coming days and weeks will be decisive.
If Maduro falls, a new chapter of “regime change lite” will open: toppling unfriendly governments through hybrid warfare without the large-scale invasions seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Salahuddin Khadiv
