With Iran’s missile attacks on Israel tonight, the fragile existing ceasefire has become even more invalid.
Kabul 24: Based on what we have witnessed so far, Iran’s response is more than just a symbolic strike. The successive, low-volume missile barrages toward Israel carry a specific message.
It appears that the relatively small number of missiles in each barrage is intended to reduce the chance of successful hits while demonstrating a reaction at the same level as today’s attack on Dahieh.
However, launching successive waves from dispersed bases across the country aims to convey that Iran’s missile capacity remains intact and undiminished, just like before the war.It is unlikely that Israel will remain silent and not respond.
Even a missile attack without hits or casualties means imposing a new equation on Tel Aviv and undermining its deterrence.Israel’s probable response faces two simultaneous challenges: first, restoring deterrence and reshaping Tehran’s strategic perception; second, operating within the framework of America’s considerations to avoid a return to full-scale war.
The dynamics of these two contradictory goals will determine the type and scale of Israel’s reaction.It is still unclear how the renewed flare-up of clashes relates to the recent political exchanges.
Is it a reflection of the current diplomatic deadlock?If Israel responds to tonight’s Iranian attacks, will it do so without American support?
If it is highly likely to be without direct U.S. intervention, will Iran extend the tension to the Strait of Hormuz and the Arab Gulf states?If Iran refrains from escalating tension in the south, it will lose an effective lever of pressure to restrain Israel.
If it follows the pattern of recent days, it risks the complete collapse of the current half-hearted ceasefire.
The situation has become very similar to the War of Attrition between Egypt and Israel from March 1969 to August 1970 — an 18-month, half-hearted conflict along both banks of the Suez Canal that was nonetheless costly, bloody, and at times involved attacks on vital Egyptian infrastructure deep inside its territory.
The War of Attrition was a long interlude between two full-scale but short wars: June 1967 and October 1973. If not right now and so soon, all the evidence suggests that a return to all-out war is never far from the realm of possibility.
Salahuddin Khadiv
