Pakistani media reports indicate that the transit trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan has plummeted to its lowest level in years.
Kabul 24: In Pakistan’s fiscal year 2026, the value of this trade stood at just $367 million, marking a dramatic collapse compared to previous years.
Before 2021, the annual transit trade volume between the two countries reached approximately $5 billion, with around 89,000 containers moving across the border each year. However, current figures show a steep drop to only about 11,600 containers in the ongoing period.
This sharp decline has dealt a significant blow to bilateral economic ties and raised concerns on both sides of the border.In 2023, the transit trade showed promising performance. The number of containers exceeded 102,000, and the total trade value climbed to $6.7 billion.
That year represented one of the strongest periods for transit commerce in recent times, generating optimism for sustained growth.
Yet, the positive momentum has since reversed sharply, leading to the current historic low.According to the reports, the main factors behind this downturn are Afghanistan’s shift toward Iran as an alternative transit route and the prolonged closure of several border crossings between Kabul and Islamabad.
Even before the full closure of key border points, Afghanistan had begun reducing its reliance on Pakistani routes. The country actively pursued expanded transit and trade cooperation with Iran and Central Asian nations, aiming to diversify its access to international markets.This strategic pivot stems from ongoing political tensions, security issues, and repeated border disputes.
The closures have not only disrupted the smooth flow of goods but have also severely damaged commercial confidence between the two neighbors. Afghan traders have increasingly sought more reliable and less risky corridors through Iranian territory and northern routes.The consequences of this decline are far-reaching for both economies.
Pakistan is losing substantial revenue from customs duties and transit fees, while Afghanistan faces higher transportation costs, delays in goods delivery, and increased overall trade expenses. Economists warn that continued reduction in transit trade could further strain bilateral relations and limit economic opportunities in the region.
Analysts emphasize that reviving this vital trade corridor requires de-escalation of political tensions, reliable reopening of border crossings, and rebuilding mutual trust.
Without concrete steps in these areas, the downward trend may persist, affecting livelihoods, businesses, and regional connectivity.
As of now, the outlook for a quick recovery remains uncertain. Both countries need to prioritize dialogue and practical measures to restore the once-thriving transit trade that previously served as a cornerstone of their economic relationship.
