The heavy defeat of the Republican Party in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate—following the economic crisis stemming from the unpopular war with Iran is reminiscent of the collapse of the conservative Republican coalition in the early 1930s following the Great Depression. That era led to the victory of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Democrats, alongside the formation of the political and social coalition known as the “New Deal.”
Kabul 24 News: This shift paved the way for decades of Democratic political dominance and the creation of one of the most stable electoral coalitions in American history. However, that coalition gradually fractured and collapsed by the 1960s due to a series of developments, including civil rights conflicts and the political and social fallout of the Vietnam War.
In the recent U.S. elections, cultural, identity, religious, and racial divides were—at least temporarily overshadowed by the concept of class. Rising gasoline and diesel prices alongside the soaring cost of living, partly caused by the war with Iran, transformed economic discontent into a decisive factor in voting behavior. Consequently, a portion of dissatisfied voters, regardless of their cultural and identity affiliations, turned away from the Republicans and voted for Democratic candidates.
The significance of this transition becomes clearer within the context of the historical realignment of both American parties’ social bases. The Democratic Party, which under Roosevelt relied on industrial workers, labor unions, farmers, and ethnic minorities, lost a large segment of conservative southern whites and eventually the white working class to its rival after the 1960s civil rights struggles and cultural shifts. In return, the Democrats gradually became the party of ethnic minorities, African Americans, college-educated voters, women, and the urban middle class.
The Republicans also carved out a new social base by attracting non-college-educated whites alongside religious and cultural conservatives—a trend that reached a new phase with the rise of Donald Trump.
However, the recent elections show signs of erosion within this coalition. A portion of Latino voters who had leaned toward Trump in the 2024 election shifted back toward the Democrats. Simultaneously, economic discontent managed to overshadow cultural and identity boundaries. It appears that the coalition built by Trump—linking cultural conservatism, nationalism, and the demands of a segment of the working class—is facing fresh strain when confronted with the economic costs of war and the rising cost of living.
Of course, a single midterm election should not be interpreted as a definitive and permanent shift in the parties’ social foundations. Educational, racial, and cultural divides remain embedded in American society, and dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration does not necessarily equate to a permanent shift in voters’ political identity.
The more critical question is whether the Democrats can turn this electoral victory into a durable social coalition. Roosevelt’s experience demonstrated that economic discontent transforms into lasting political change only when paired with a clear socio-economic program and institutional reforms.
From this perspective, the recent elections can be viewed not merely as a Republican defeat, but as a potential sign of a new realignment in America’s social and political landscape—one in which class and livelihood have once again returned to the center of political debate.
Just as the Great Depression led to the decline of the Republican coalition and decades of Democratic dominance, the question now arises: Could the economic and political consequences of the war with Iran mark the beginning of a new era of Democratic ascendancy and the decline of the Trumpist coalition?
Part of the answer depends on Trump’s conduct over the next two years and his policy toward Iran. Trump cannot be entirely categorized within standard party lines. While Republican leaders—reeling from a collapse-level defeat—are seeking introspection and structural reforms, Trump himself is focused on salvaging his political legacy and securing a favorable place in history.
It is plausible that, rather than making him more cautious, this recent defeat will fuel his audacity, leading him to escalate the war and intensify pressure on Iran in hopes of a redeeming victory.
Salahaddin Khadiv
